WTI crude jumped more than 10% this week after the US reinstated a naval presence near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran signalled its ceasefire had collapsed. Reports of strikes on regional military and logistics sites have raised fears of broader supply disruption, driving a sharp spike in volatility across energy markets.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June and is broadly expected to hold again at its July 28-29 meeting, maintaining a “higher-for-longer” stance as inflation stays elevated. Traders will be watching the accompanying commentary closely for any shift in tone ahead of September.

EUR/USD has traded in a narrow band this week, weighed down by broad US-dollar demand amid Middle East-driven risk aversion. Three central-bank decisions land within eight days – the ECB on July 23, the Fed on July 29, and the Bank of England on July 30 – setting up a volatile stretch for major pairs.

This week’s calendar is loaded: the People’s Bank of China meets Monday alongside Canadian and New Zealand CPI; UK labour-market data lands Tuesday; UK CPI follows Wednesday; Australian jobs data and the ECB rate decision are due Thursday; and flash PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US round out Friday.

Gold fell back below the $4,000 mark this week, drifting toward multi-month lows as renewed US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Markets are now pricing roughly a 53% chance of a Fed rate move by September, up from under 50% a day earlier.